AFTER THE EURO – THE NEXT GREAT THREAT

Time-lines here are crucial. Indeed, if you look back over the history of the diplomatic battles with Iran, timelines seem to be almost infinitely flexible’.

Jonathan Marcus Diplomatic and defence correspondent, BBC News

FOR DAYS NOW there has been talk of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear capability. The Israeli press have been dominated by the possibility, made credible by the presence of a senior British military officer in Israel, and the appearance of Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, in London; as well as an anti-Iranian public statement by the UK.

            But the most convincing clue as to the West’s intension comes with the release of a report by the UN’s nuclear watchdog – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is expected to confirm the intension of Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. It will suggest that Iran is now on the brink of such a development.

            What this means is, is that diplomacy has proved useless and further sanctions will prove equally so. The president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has taken all of this talk seriously and issued bellicose statements defying Israel, America and Britain to do their worst, promising, in return, an overwhelming military response against Israel.

            There is no doubt in my mind that Iran is endeavouring to create a nuclear capability in a part of the world where such a weapon’s omnipotence would be respected, if the West’s suspicions and intelligent guesses proved accurate.

            If Iran can successfully threaten and chastise her Western enemies and create doubt and fear among their leaders to such an extent that they are left fighting among themselves over what action to take in response to this new Iranian power, then Iran will continue to gain the increasing respect from the Arab Muslim world. But not only this, she will also reach further afield and gain the respect and support among all of those Muslim peoples who blame the West for all of their misfortunes, including droughts and monsoons.

            Ahmadinejad sees the West as  the late Chairman Mao saw the West. He believes  the West are paper tigers roaring endlessly but doing nothing; only posturing and threatening him with sanctions. By using rhetoric as the only source of threat against him, the Iranian president feels personally, as he should, as omnipotent as he feels his ownership of a nuclear capability makes his nation.

            To have allowed such a devastating military capability to be created, and then for it to be placed in the deadly hands of religious fanatics headed by  Iran’s Mullahs; and to have done so without any challenge apart from empty rhetorical threats and various sanctions; the dubious success of which, those imposing them are all too well aware.

           

IF ISRAEL IS FORCED TO go it alone in order to protect her people from the nightmare of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hand on the nuclear button; then, through sheer necessity, the Jewish state will have to go it alone. Ahmadinejad  has let his feelings toward Israel be known on an almost daily basis. He, like Hamas, wishes the state of Israel not to exist; and he would not hesitate to destroy the Jewish state had he the means to do so. Now it seems, that if the leeks about the contents of  the IAEA report are true; he does have, or is soon to have, such a means.

            We in the West have passed resolution after resolution and issued warning after warning, throughout Iran’s journey toward nuclear statehood. Iran rightly judged that the West would do nothing of any practical effect to deter her in her ambition. Indeed, the West even reigned in Israel when she hoped to halt Iran’s ambitions in their tracks, as she had done when Syria tried to become a nuclear power.

            The West has allowed an unstable leadership of theologians in Iran to develop the ultimate military weapon with only a pointed finger waved in response.

            Iran’s ambitions should have been nipped in the bud before a time was reached when Iran had a responsive capability. The West, but most notably America’s leaders, have badly let their country’s closest ally down. Prevarication became an art form among Western leaders when it came to Iran; so much so that we are living with a far greater threat now than we had much earlier, when we could have sent five or six jets to bomb what would have been a project in its infancy.

           

IRAN NEEDS TO BE STOPPED. But it should be a Western coalition preferably without any direct Israeli involvement that does the deed. The days of prevarication are coming to an end as far as the West and Iran are concerned. Israel would, as she did at the time of the first Iraq War, stand to one side and allow her allies to do what is needed in all of our interests. If Israel has to go it alone then the aftermath for the West will be traumatic. Not only the Arab world but the Islamic world as a whole will be up in arms: and whatever terrorist threat we may have now, will be nothing compared to what will follow a successful Israeli raid on Iran’s nuclear capability.

        Imagine this if you will. We have 15 million Muslims living in Europe. In the UK over two million Muslims have been given UK citizenship. If Israel is left alone to deal successfully with the greatest threat to her country’s survival, then there will be no Synagogue left safe. Anti-Semitism will flourish once more and make the need for a Jewish homeland even more compelling than Hitler once made it. The Left, because of the Palestinian situation are teetering on the brink of Anti-Semitism, without any Israeli action driving them over the edge.

            No, Iran has to be stopped and the West has to do the stopping. We have allowed Iran, just as we did Hitler’s Germany, to become a military force that poses a real threat, not only to Israel, but to Western societies as a whole.

            Think of Ahmadinejad  as another much more powerful Osama bin-Laden. If Israel is determined to embark upon such an adventure and proves successful, the Iranian leader will be able to summon monsters from the deep throughout the Muslim world; and it will be the West to whom they will be sent.

THE WEST MUST repeat what Cameron and Sarkozy did when Libya became part of the Arab Spring. In the case of Iran, they must orchestrate an alliance against Ahmadinejad throughout, not only the Western world, but also within the Muslim world; and in particular, the Arab world; and take on Iran’s nuclear capability.

            Ahmadinejad has enemies in the Arab world, but his defiance of the West only enhances his reputation among their peoples. Only when his nuclear promiscuity is destroyed will we have a safer world. But it must be an alliance of the West and whatever Arab nations can be brought on board that must do what is necessary for international stability.

            Israel, I believe, would prefer any military effort against Iran to be taken from their hands and placed into the hands of her Western allies. Israel needs no greater headache than she already has with both Hamas and Hezbollah; as well as the possible threats to Israel of the Arab Spring. If the Western politicians could manufacture enough courage to act decisively instead of looking over their backs to see whether their public approves their actions or not, then they may merit the title of statesmen.

            I do not know Israel’s intention, but the West had better. Israel, I hope, will do whatever proves needed to preserve her nationhood. Her people have suffered century’s of persecution within the Diaspora and have earned their right to return to their ancient homeland.

            Iran has been allowed to become a nuclear threat to the region by the inadequacies of  Western leadership, whose calculations are ultimately primed by the next election and their own prospects resulting from it.

            Iran has to be stopped pure and simple, and if the West, through the ambitions of their politicians, fall short of this necessity; then it is up to Israel to protect her people and her Jewish state from their future riddance, daily promised by a nuclear armed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

            Like any other nation, Israel will do whatever is in her power to do to preserve her people and their national identity. Nationhood is sacred and Israel will do whatever they feel necessary to preserve it. Our European leaders may lack any such compunction because of the European Union, but thankfully Israel still has a hold on her people’s national identity.