I BELIEVE IN THE UNION with Scotland. If it broke apart, both countries would pay a heavy price. But if the people of Scotland wish to go their own way, then there is little we can do about it, or should do about it. No matter how important many of us on this side of the boarder think the union is, we should not go cap in hand to the likes of Alex Salmond.
If he wants, for political reasons, to wait until 2014 to give his people a referendum, hoping to capture the nationalist sentiment of the Scottish people on the anniversary of Bannockburn , then let him do so.
Why David Cameron insists on a date before 2014, and seeks to cause friction over it, is beyond me.
Where he is on much firmer ground, however, is in his demand for a straight, in or out choice on the ballot paper. For a third compromise question on the ballot paper would be seen by the English as the Scots wanting their cake and eating it: deeper devolution while remaining part of the union, is salami slicing your way to independence – something the late John Smith never foresaw when he concocted devolution; calling it the ‘settled will’ of the Scottish people.
At the time, there were those who opposed devolution because they believed that it could only lead to full independence, which, by stealth, now seems to be happening. I myself was not one of those anti-devolutionists. To me, as a lifelong Labour supporter at the time, John Smith was the brightest star in the Labour firmament, and if his life had not been tragically cut short would have made a first class prime minister of the country.
But, when he died, and Tony Blair eventually became prime minister; his own support for Scottish devolution, became, in part, an affecting tribute to John Smith. At the time we all sneered at those who warned of the break-up of the union…devolution being merely the first stage on the journey.
The second stage would be Alex Salmond holding a referendum with a third question calling for deeper devolution short of full independence.
We cannot, therefore, allow such a third question on the ballot paper. When I say ‘we’ cannot ‘allow’ such a question, I do not mean to sound patronising to the Scottish people who I greatly admire and respect. But the reality is, that the English taxpayer would be financing the great third question compromise through their taxes. Therefore, they should have a say on the nature of the ballot paper; and David Cameron speaks for the English when he demands an in or out referendum; leaving the timing to Alex Salmond’s Machiavellian impulses.
IF THERE IS an in or out referendum, and the settled will of the Scottish people is for independence, then, after the understandable celebrating that would follow such a vote; there would be a few realities for the Scottish people to take cognisance of.
First of all, the national independence they would have felt themselves to have won, would be no such thing. For where would this ‘nation’ stand in relation to Europe? Especially with the current crises within the euro zone, and the determination of the Merkozy to force feed the people of Europe with the gruel of full political and monetary union. Where would Scotland’s new won sovereignty stand, if soon after attaining it they were expected to give it up?
What would Scotland’s currency be? Would it continue with the pound, or do what no other nation on this planet would do at the moment, and join the euro?
Alex Salmon dares not face his people with these questions; and in the cauldron of a referendum campaign, neither Tory, Labour, or Liberal Democrat ,will introduce such anti-European questions into the debate either. For the truth is, all of the other major parties in Scotland as well as England, are pro-Europe to some degree or another.
BUT WHAT ALEX SALMOND cannot ignore, is the economic case for remaining within the union, which the Scottish people will be made well aware of come the campaign.
Firstly, Scotland could start their new found national sovereignty with a £270 billion debt pile[1]. This figure comprises Scotland’s own debt which could be as high as £189 billion added to which is Scotland’s share of the UK’s national debt which amounts to another £80 billion, which would cost more than £10 billion in annual interest payments. Also, even with the boasted oil and gas revenues of £6 billion, Scotland spends £9 billion more every year than is generated by revenues.
Scottish Financial Enterprise represents some of Scotland’s largest financial institutions; and they have demanded that Scottish politicians need to provide lucidity when talking of their plans for Scottish independence.
Scotland’s financial services account for 8 % of Scotland’s £140 billion economy. Owen Kelly, chief executive of Scottish Financial Enterprise said, : ‘Like our members, we believe that this is a decision that needs to be taken by the Scottish people – it's not our job to tell people how to vote.
‘However, it is important that some uncertainties are removed. Issues like currency, membership of the EU, regulation and the possible impact on the UK as a single market can be clarified ahead of the referendum. And they need to be clarified so that companies, employees, customers and shareholders can understand the changes that independence will bring.
‘We don't get involved in constitutional issues but believe uncertainty must be removed wherever possible.’
It is this question of uncertainty that the financial markets fear most. If Alex Salmond wishes to delay a referendum in order to celebrate some kind of historical, but nevertheless, pyrrhic victory over an ancient enemy, who he has probably spent his whole life in wishing to defeat in one way or another, then so be it. Let the chippy Scottish nationalist have his day. He can sit at home, believing himself a job well done. But he must, if he believes in Scotland, face up to the unremitting demands of his life-long chipiness toward the English by accepting his eventual defeat.
I BELIEVE THAT the best way forward for both out nations is remaining part of the union. Both countries have helped shape the modern world like no other; and despite our ancient grievances have always managed to rub along.
The union is needed now more than at any other time in both our nation’s history. If the people of Scotland chose the destiny Alex Salmond as mapped out for them, then they will live to regret their decision – but it their decision, and they must make it on the basis of the head ruling the heart. If they fall into Salmond’s Bannockburn trap, they will have decades to repent their decision.
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