IF ALL THE commentators are proven correct, then the Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is about to take a decision that, if proven to have been the wrong one, could cost Israel and the West dearly. Speculation has it that he will give the order to attack Iran just before the American presidential elections, making it impossible for president Obama to refuse him American help on the eve of his fight for a second term.
One commentator compared the period we have just witnessed in the Arab world since the beginning of the Arab Spring, to August 1914 in Europe. Although some may think this a somewhat tasteless comparison considering the millions who died on all sides in that ensuing horror.
But, if we look at the Middle East today, almost every country has been in internal conflict. As the dictators fell, the threat from the Muslim Brotherhood has become greater. Sunni and Shia Muslims only remain united by their loathing of Christians, who have been leaving in their thousands into, what may become a new Diaspora.
In Egypt the Coptic Christians have been attacked and many have been sent packing. In Syria, the West does not know what to expect when and if Assad goes. The opposition could turn out to be far worse than even than the Assad regime. While in Lebanon, sectarian tensions, always kept just beneath the surface, broke loose in 1975, which led to a 15 year civil war during which 150,000 were killed and 200,000 wounded.
Today, the events in Syria, (a country that always poked its nose into Lebanese affairs) will also have their impact on Lebanon. Lebanon now harbours Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border. It has 10,000 missile given free and gratis by Iran, and pointing at, and capable of hitting many Israeli towns and cities. Over 34-days in 2006, Hezbollah and Israel locked horns resulting in a stalemate between the combatants; but Hezbollah was thought to have acquitted itself well,
In the Gaza Strip Hamas (Sunni) rules with an iron glove, and has done so since 2007 after it won the greater number of seats in the January 2006 parliamentary elections. Hamas’s political bureau is based in Damascus. They have only one ambition, the destruction of the Jewish state. To such people, a two-state solutions reeks of liberalism, which they have successfully managed to expel to the West Bank; where what is supposed to be a more pragmatic Palestinian leadership under Mahmoud Abbas is still supportive of, but weakening to the charms of Hamas.
When Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Iraq, were constrained by their megalomaniac rulers; Israel could, if not feel safe, then, after two wars with the Arab world, know that such people would think twice before making the same mistake again – they all represented the Devil they knew and could feel, if not safe because of Hamas and Hezbollah, then at least had order and stability.
ISRAELS MAJOR concern is Iran. It is this nation’s declared wish to rid what the world regards as the state of Israel belonging to the Jew. The Jew, and only the Jew – not Zionism as our anti-Semitic liberals would have it; but the Jews themselves. It is no accident that Nazi Germany found good allies among the Arabs of the Middle East.
Iran, like the Soviet Union of old, is using the major part of its GDP (in Iran’s case based on oil) to further her military ambitions. The first ambition of which would be the destruction of Israel – and in order to meet this ambition, a nuclear option would be needed. It would not only intimidate Israel but also serve to Christen (sic) Iran’s hegemony over the whole region among her Muslim believers.
This would however cause great concern, not only within the West, but also in other parts of the Arab world such as Saudi Arabia, who would also be determined upon becoming a nuclear power aided by the West.
The Arab Spring for Israel could mean its Armageddon; unless they act now against Iran. What if, in the future a nuclear Iran (like the old Soviet Union at the time of the Cuba crises) threatens Israel with overwhelming force if they, for instance, needed once more to take action against Hezbollah or Hamas?
Prime minister Netanyahu is being tested. His detractors are many, coming from within his own military and intelligence community, as well as from his own president, Shimon Peres. While president Obama has sought and gained the support of Jewish Rabbis to try and hang on to the much needed Jewish vote in the USA.
Netanyahu’s great political influence was Winston Churchill; and I think we may have a Churchill moment approaching. I only hope that it does not turn out to be another Gallipoli.
I feel the noose tightening around Israel’s neck following the Arab Spring – I also believe Netanyahu has felt the same tragedy unfolding for Israel. If he waits and lets Iran complete its ambitions for nuclear status, then the additional weight such a prospect would carry among Israel’s enemies; would seal Israel’s fate once and for all, to the detriment of a free West.
Whatever happens, failure may turn out to be the victor whatever course is taken. If we wait for sanctions to work long enough for the nuclear weapons to be brought on stream, then sanctions will have failed; and where does this leave Israel?
If however, Israel decides to at least slow down Iran’s nuclear ambitions by launching an attack, and this fails. Where does this Israel stand?
There is no simple option. If either failure through stasis (the West’s option) or probable but by no means certain failure through Israeli military action: either way Iranian hegemony will have elevated itself among the Muslim World. Then what price Israel’s inactivity?
LIKE THE COMMENTATOR who felt as if the Middle East today bares comparison with Europe in August 1914, I sense something diabolical is about to happen; not today, or tomorrow , but in the weeks and months ahead when the regions Arab dictators have finally departed from history: then we may see the Muslim Brotherhood orchestrating events in the Middle East.
Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iran and Jordon (who will fall into line as she did in the Yom Kippur War), will all unite and ignore their differences long enough to quash Israel. Hezbollah and Hamas will lead the charge – and what would be up against them?
Israel’s army was tested in 2006 against Hezbollah, and the indecisive outcome as well as the performance by Hezbollah on that occasion, has caused much head scratching in Israel. It seems that since the 1967 Six Day War, the Arabs have performed better than the Israelis’ expected.
The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) comprises 176, 500 troops with 445,000 reservists, out of a population of 7,900,600[1] people. The demographics are not very promising for Israel if she is faced with a further attempt at her annihilation; this time by what may turn out to be fanatical Islamists that outnumber them 10 -1 or more.
Because Israel’s military, under such an assault, would be heavily dependent upon its reservists who are, let s not forget a vital component in the overall economy, so any conflict would have to be, as in 1967 and 1973, of short duration. If Israel were drawn into a prolonged struggle, her whole economy would face disaster. She would need outside help, and, until Obama, Israel could rely upon America for such help.
Benjamin Netanyahu has the fate of his nation on his shoulders, as did his hero Churchill; but Churchill knew he needed, what he called our cousins across the Atlantic, and so will be the case today if Israel is to survive.
I do not like the republican candidate who is challenging Obama for the presidency this November. Romney has failed to impress. So I fear a second term for Obama when it comes to Israel’s survival. I am working on the assumption of a Obama second term, which only adds to my own August 1914 fear.
No comments:
Post a Comment