ISRAEL SURROUNDED BY THE ARAB SPRING

HOW WILL THE STILL UNFOLDING EVENTS in North Africa and Syria affect the state of Israel?

            As the many thousands of followers of my blog know, I am a supporter of , and a believer in the existence of the state of Israel; and when it comes to writing about Israel I do so as a partisan source adding my humble perspective on the unfolding events of the Arab Spring.

            In answer to my question at the beginning of this piece; well it seems that the American President chooses to think that out of the unfolding chaos of the Arab Spring will emerge a tapestry sympathetic to friendly relations with Israel.

            This I very much doubt. In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood is edging its way toward power by declaring its intention to stand for election to a democratically elected Egyptian parliament. The Brotherhood will no doubt use the previous president, Mubarak’s friendly relations with Israel to their own advantage in so doing.

            The Egyptian people do not support the state of Israel and resented their previous president’s relationship with it. They will however support a moderate party to govern them, providing the terms of such moderation include an unreceptive attitude toward the Jewish state. Which means that all the parties contesting Egypt’s future election, will have to accommodate themselves with such a popular will.

            This of course need not prove fatal to the chances of  secular  parties eager to continue with an accommodation with Israel; providing they master the subtleties of political rhetoric, most useful at election time, as we in the West know all too well.

            I am as ignorant of the current situation regarding the political parties in Egypt as I am about the workings of a tsunami; but both may come to the same arrangement regarding their destructive potential when it comes to Egypt. So I am not as sanguine as the American president appears to be regarding the unfolding dramas in the Arab world and their impact on Israel.

IN SYRIA, THE events currently unfolding may presage an outcome even more dangerous to the Jewish state’s existence than those being enacted in Egypt. Even President Netanyahu has proffered the adage - better the devil you know, when it comes to overthrowing Syria’s present incumbent,  Bashar al-Assad.

            Israel is surrounded by enemies, and since 1967 with their victory in the Six Day War, as well as their victory in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Egypt in particular, has sought closer ties with Israel to their mutual advantage. But the Egyptian people resented their leaders association with the state of Israel. To the Egyptian people both the Six Day War and Yom Kippur were humiliations that had to be avenged.

            Of course, the Arab Spring has cast its net far wider than Egypt and Syria. But as far as Israel is concerned, it is how the dice will fall in these two Arab countries that will concern them the most.

            President Obama’s observation of concordance seems over optimistic and somewhat premature. I say this because, if they so manage to take advantage , the Muslim world will have no better opportunity than they have now in trespassing upon not only Israel but the infidel West.

           

IN THE MUSLIM WORLD today, the rising power is Iran. It is Iran that will lead any future attack upon Israel under the flag of Islam.

            Iran has, through Hezbollah, made Lebanon her satellite. Israel’s northern border is now endangered by Iran. Hezbollah’s weaponry is supplied by Iran. According to Israeli intelligence, Hezbollah has some 50,000 rockets hidden within civilian areas of  southern Lebanon ready for use.  Iran is also perfecting nuclear weapons and the missiles capable of carrying them into Israel.

            The West knows this is happening. It is not some kind of misinformation dispersed by Israel. But the West lack the will to act against Iran; and will not consent to an Israeli attack upon Iran’s nuclear capability.

            So Israel has to do what she has had to do since the first intifada and, sponge-like, soak up the animosity of the West’s elites.

BUT WHAT IF IRAN can convince the people of the Arab Spring that they have the means of destroying the Jewish state and returning the Palestinians to what will undoubtedly become once more, over time, what they consider their sand ridden homeland?

            Could the people of Egypt and Syria join what would become a Muslim triumphrate with Iran and do what their ancestors could not do, and rid the Middle East of Jewry once and for all. Such an appeal, given Iran’s military power, might just appeal to enough Egyptians and, if they prove successful against Bashar al-Assad, enough Syrians.

            This scenario hopefully may not come about, but it is a possibility that, if not the American president, then hopefully the Israeli president is considering. There will come a time when the West will come to regret preventing Israel from destroying Iran’s nuclear programme in its infancy, as Israel once did with Syria’s.