THE POLITICAL CLASS IS DIVIDED. Even the Right-wing press is divided. Stephen Glover and Max Hastings (Daily Mail) are set against; while Mary Riddell and David Blair (The Daily Telegraph) are for. As for the public the division is far wider, as a poll in today's Sun ably demonstrates.

            

            To strike or not to strike. Do nothing and leave the field with our tail between our legs; or fight, which may provoke fearful consequences by so doing. It is time for Cameron to show that he merits the title of statesman - unlike the rest of the elected parliamentary community.

           

           Tomorrow in parliament our MPs will be awarded a debate and are seeking a vote at its end. First of all, let us see what would be our contribution to events when the order is given. We have a Trafalgar class submarine armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles somewhere in the Mediterranean…and that appears to be it.

            

           We have HMS Illustrious, the Royal navy's helicopter carrier as well as the frigate HMS Westminster and naval auxiliary ships undergoing exercises off Albania, but are impotent as far as any strike capability on Syria is concerned. We have an airbase on Cyprus, but I have read that we have no strike aircraft available on site[1]. Rather, its importance will be to the USAF if it is required to launch an air attack - although the Americans are shying away from airstrikes because of Assad's anti-aircraft missiles, many of which he has been well provided for by Russia.

            

            So the UK's military contribution is merely a token. America does not need it militarily, but welcomes it politically. So, it seems that, at great cost to the public purse, our politicians are gathering to discuss whether a single submarine should take part. Our  650 MPs will, on Thursday, decide whether we should launch 20 Tomahawk cruise missiles (a mere pittance) . For this is all we will have to contribute. It matters not a jot if the MPs vote to oppose any military action, for it will take place anyway. So why recall parliament? The whole  situation in the  UK is playing like a Gilbert and Sullivan comic opera. On this basis parliament needed never to have been recalled…it is an embarrassment and a victory for hot air.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN when the time comes is that Syria will face a bombardment of Tomahawk missiles -  not however to right an evil, for such a limited reaction will certainly not do what is needed: but to save the West's skins after their leader imposed a red line, which he had to do something about when it was crossed: and when it was crossed, the Western world's leader ordered the minimal military response; and this is what we will see.

            

             Not a single American aircraft will take-off: and not a single soldier (apart from special services) will land on Syrian soil. Obama believes that any military response to his red line threat would be enough to keep his place in history secure as his country's first black president.

            

           America will do the minimal required to keep Obama's legacy safe. Iran will wait and see the extent of the West's response before replying with an attack on Israel. It is Israel, after all, that will be left to cope with any mess the West makes of their attack on Syria.

Thursday, 29 August

SHAMBOLIC, BIZARRE, EMBARRASSING, and humiliating. MPs had all been called back off their summer holidays to debate Syria, before what we were told by the media to be the inevitable air strikes on the Assad regime took place. Word was out that the attack would either begin immediately after the debate, or before the weekend. Now, because of an opposition amendment, the debate need never take place.

            

            The Milliband amendment (as history will no doubt refer to it) has put a bloody great spanner in America's and the UK government's wheel, and, if you believe in chaos theory, will have consequences for the West in the decades to come.

            

            Milliband went back on an earlier decision to support military action; deciding instead to impose six politically motivated criteria of such harshness in his amendment that it would have delayed action for weeks; and  he would only vote for a government motion if the government were to included his amendment in the motion. Which of course they could not.

            

            If Milliband had acted from high principle, then the government would have at least respected his actions. But Milliband was acting in his own party's political interest; and, more significantly, his own.

            

            After the torrid time he has had over the summer; what with his party's backbenchers and 'elder statesmen' criticising his leadership; and an unhappy conference fast approaching, where fevered speculation about his leadership qualities would be whispered about on the conference floor and debated on the fringes; and then speculated upon in interview after interview with his MPs and delegates by the media; something needed to be done.

            

            As with the leadership contest with his brother David, when he made his Mephistophelian pact with the unions, he is now not thinking of his country's interest, or those  2,000  poisoned by the Assad regime; but only of saving his own skin.

WE ALL KNOW WHAT may have happened if the strike on Syria went ahead; but little thought has been given to what may happen in the coming months and years following our retreat. For I do not now see the West attacking Syria…the moment has passed, thanks in no small measure to Ed Miliband's domestic political ambitions.

            

            President Assad has sent to every MP in the UK a letter which includes an invitation to all British MPs to visit Damascus this weekend to hear Assad's side of the story. I am told the Syrian leader enjoys Quality Street.

            

             The MP George Galloway was recently seen on Iranian (Shia Muslim) television blaming al-Queada (Sunni Muslim) for the chemical attack: and what is more Galloway suggested the chemical weapons were supplied to al-Queada by Israel no less.

            

             Today's worthless debate means little, except for Syria. Assad has, it seems, access to hundreds of what he regards as his useful idiots. Through his correspondence with the UK's MPs, he hopes that sufficient numbers will be drawn to his cause to give his regime publicity and more importantly legitimacy…let the homage to Assad begin.

           

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[1] Today it has been announced we have deployed six Typhoon jets to Cyprus; but only to deter any Syrian attack on the island.