ISRAEL SURROUNDED BY THE ARAB SPRING

HOW WILL THE STILL UNFOLDING EVENTS in North Africa and Syria affect the state of Israel?

            As the many thousands of followers of my blog know, I am a supporter of , and a believer in the existence of the state of Israel; and when it comes to writing about Israel I do so as a partisan source adding my humble perspective on the unfolding events of the Arab Spring.

            In answer to my question at the beginning of this piece; well it seems that the American President chooses to think that out of the unfolding chaos of the Arab Spring will emerge a tapestry sympathetic to friendly relations with Israel.

            This I very much doubt. In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood is edging its way toward power by declaring its intention to stand for election to a democratically elected Egyptian parliament. The Brotherhood will no doubt use the previous president, Mubarak’s friendly relations with Israel to their own advantage in so doing.

            The Egyptian people do not support the state of Israel and resented their previous president’s relationship with it. They will however support a moderate party to govern them, providing the terms of such moderation include an unreceptive attitude toward the Jewish state. Which means that all the parties contesting Egypt’s future election, will have to accommodate themselves with such a popular will.

            This of course need not prove fatal to the chances of  secular  parties eager to continue with an accommodation with Israel; providing they master the subtleties of political rhetoric, most useful at election time, as we in the West know all too well.

            I am as ignorant of the current situation regarding the political parties in Egypt as I am about the workings of a tsunami; but both may come to the same arrangement regarding their destructive potential when it comes to Egypt. So I am not as sanguine as the American president appears to be regarding the unfolding dramas in the Arab world and their impact on Israel.

IN SYRIA, THE events currently unfolding may presage an outcome even more dangerous to the Jewish state’s existence than those being enacted in Egypt. Even President Netanyahu has proffered the adage - better the devil you know, when it comes to overthrowing Syria’s present incumbent,  Bashar al-Assad.

            Israel is surrounded by enemies, and since 1967 with their victory in the Six Day War, as well as their victory in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Egypt in particular, has sought closer ties with Israel to their mutual advantage. But the Egyptian people resented their leaders association with the state of Israel. To the Egyptian people both the Six Day War and Yom Kippur were humiliations that had to be avenged.

            Of course, the Arab Spring has cast its net far wider than Egypt and Syria. But as far as Israel is concerned, it is how the dice will fall in these two Arab countries that will concern them the most.

            President Obama’s observation of concordance seems over optimistic and somewhat premature. I say this because, if they so manage to take advantage , the Muslim world will have no better opportunity than they have now in trespassing upon not only Israel but the infidel West.

           

IN THE MUSLIM WORLD today, the rising power is Iran. It is Iran that will lead any future attack upon Israel under the flag of Islam.

            Iran has, through Hezbollah, made Lebanon her satellite. Israel’s northern border is now endangered by Iran. Hezbollah’s weaponry is supplied by Iran. According to Israeli intelligence, Hezbollah has some 50,000 rockets hidden within civilian areas of  southern Lebanon ready for use.  Iran is also perfecting nuclear weapons and the missiles capable of carrying them into Israel.

            The West knows this is happening. It is not some kind of misinformation dispersed by Israel. But the West lack the will to act against Iran; and will not consent to an Israeli attack upon Iran’s nuclear capability.

            So Israel has to do what she has had to do since the first intifada and, sponge-like, soak up the animosity of the West’s elites.

BUT WHAT IF IRAN can convince the people of the Arab Spring that they have the means of destroying the Jewish state and returning the Palestinians to what will undoubtedly become once more, over time, what they consider their sand ridden homeland?

            Could the people of Egypt and Syria join what would become a Muslim triumphrate with Iran and do what their ancestors could not do, and rid the Middle East of Jewry once and for all. Such an appeal, given Iran’s military power, might just appeal to enough Egyptians and, if they prove successful against Bashar al-Assad, enough Syrians.

            This scenario hopefully may not come about, but it is a possibility that, if not the American president, then hopefully the Israeli president is considering. There will come a time when the West will come to regret preventing Israel from destroying Iran’s nuclear programme in its infancy, as Israel once did with Syria’s.

                         

EGYPT ON THE BRINK OF…

THE TRUTH IS NOBODY,  whether politician, seasoned correspondent or academic specialist of the Middle East, knows where the events unfolding in Egypt will lead.

                Western leaders, who have to sound authorative, are as bemused and as ignorant as their civil service advisors are about where this will all end. Predicting the outcome of revolution is like calculating the roulette wheel.

                One thing however is for sure. Waiting upon the outcome must be causing sleepless nights in the corridors of Western power. Of course, the elephant in the Oval Office as well as Downing Street, is the possible rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Egypt once President Hosni Mubarak goes.

                The Muslim Brotherhood are popular with the Egyptian people and would prove disastrous for the West if they were to win any democratic election, if and when President Mubarak departs. If they gained control of the country, what would their attitude be toward Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria?  Would the military allow them to rule if they embraced sharia law and tried to turn Egypt into a theocracy?

                There is no doubt that the West would have liked President Mubarak to stay in power  while pursuing a reforming agenda. But if such a proposition carried any credibility at the beginning of these troubles, it has long since lost both its attraction and any possibility of ever happening.

                However, I believe many leaders in the West have a soft spot for Mubarak’s  former intelligence chief         Suleman who has just been appointed vice-president. From what I have read of this man, he would continue  Egypt’s friendly relationship with the West.

                He is seen as a moderate who is also respected by Israel, which has had many dealings with him in the past on Mubarak’s behalf.  Suleman’s contribution to the stability of the Middle East, it seems, cannot be underestimated, and the West would breath a lot easier if it was dealing with ‘President’ Suleman.

                But alas, the people correctly associate  him with Mubarak and would therefore reject him if given the chance through a secret ballot. Which brings us to Mohammed ElBaradei, the Nobel peace laureate who the people do see as a credible opposition leader.

                The trouble with Nobel peace laureates, is that they either lack credibility (Kissinger) or are trusting idealists who are vulnerable to drowning in the choppy  waters of political power. I am as ignorant of Mr  ElBaradei’s  qualities or qualifications to run Egypt. I know nothing of his party, or even if he has one; if not who would he appoint as president to help him govern?

                Mr ElBaradei, if he becomes the people’s choice, will have to form a government with… who? Will the Muslim Brotherhood have a role to play?

THESE ARE DESPEATE TIMES indeed for the West as well as Israel. I believe that Egypt’s fate has a greater significance for the West than had the fall of the Soviet Union. Egypt has been pivotal in orchestrating peace in the Middle East for the last 30 years. Mubarak was trusted by Israel as was Sadat before him. Both leaders knew that an accommodation would have to made by the Arab world with the state of Israel; even if, at times, it meant putting the Palestinian cause on hold.

                Those like Mr ElBaradei  give priority to the interests of the Egyptian people whose condition has fallen into dreadful decline during the Mubarak years ,while we in the West look and have to take cognisance of the big picture.

                The big picture for the West is this. If  Egypt were to fall into the hands of an Islamist party hell bent, like communism, upon the belief that their religion must encompass every acre of the planet, then the West will have a battle on its hands.

                Israel will have to contend with an invigorated Islamist Egypt as well as Hamas and Hezbollah. Added to this mixture would be Iran and Syria with al-Quaeda and the Taliban    stirring the pot in Afghanistan.

                With so many followers of Islam now living in the West, a Muslimist Egypt would represent the best opportunity for the Islamic world in 500 years to advance their faith into the West.

                As a Western citizen I obviously feel for the Egyptian people and truly believe that were    Mr Suleman to be allowed to govern transitionally until Egypt once more found its way by some kind of democratic mandate, then this would be the best outcome for Egypt and the world.

                Mubarak is estimated to have had stored away some $20 billion according to  the Daily Telegraph. He should depart and leave his vice-president to seek a democratic way forward for the Egyptian people. Let him keep his loot as many a dictator has been allowed to do in the past. He may have served the interests of the West well, but was it because he, like the West, believed that the interests of the Middle East was best served by an understanding with Israel, or was he more interested in the West’s money?

THE PRESENT CRISIS will be resolved one way or another, as the West awaits its fate. A fate which will determine whether military conflict with Israel will replace the uneasy concordant between Egypt and the Jewish state.

                The possibility of military conflict between the West and Islam is what the Western leaders most fear. They do so partly because, especially in Europe, Muslims have been encouraged to take up residency. In Britain for instance the current Muslim population will double over the next  30 years to 5 million. While in the rest of Europe there are currently some 15 million Muslims with the prospect of a further 80 million joining them from Turkey.

                In Europe this advance has been due to ‘moderate’ politicians who believe in a Multicultural society. This enterprise has lead to the creation of the apostate among leading European politicians. The German Chancellor, Angela Murkel has recently owned up to Multiculturalism’s failure in Germany.

                In this country the outcome of Egypt’s revolution is perhaps more eagerly awaited than in most other Western nations. If, for instance, Mr  Suleman leads an interim administration until elections can be held, then the UK can breathe a sigh of relief until the Egyptian people have their say through the ballot box.

                What would then be considered a favourable outcome for the UK with 2.5 million Muslims in residency on its shores is indecipherable . But no doubt whatever the outcome, our Foreign Office will paint as pretty a picture as ever appeared from the palette of Monet… in order to safe- guard our cultural diversity.