CIVIL WAR IS an ugly business, but in party politics, it is also a form of entertainment for those in whatever party not engaged in it. But today we have a party entering the early stages of such a war, and another on the verge of such open conflict.
But the distinctiveness of the civil war within the Tory Party is feared by the very people who should be celebrating it. Those Labour backbenchers may have shared a kind of personal joy at Ian Duncan Smith's nuclear resignation. But after celebrating in the numerous publically subsidised bars in and around Westminster; and waking the next morning in a far less salubrious state than they were in immediately before the explosion - they must have had second thoughts. The moment had past. Now with much deliberation, those celebratory Labour backbenchers suddenly fear for the prospect of their own party's future. The parliamentary Labour Party is no friend of George Osborn and David Cameron; but neither are the majority of them any friend of Jeremy Corbyn.
Those who are the most reflective in the parliamentary Labour Party would not be considered (especially after the rise of Ukip) fantasists if before this year's end a general election is called – and yes; Corbyn wins it. I believe such a prospect would terrify the Labour backbenches as much as the Tories, as well as the rest of us. We are living in uncertain and dangerous times; and what seems fantastical, imprudent, and thoughtless today, may give us a Corbyn government in the months hence.
It will be the result of the EU referendum that will ignite such an outcome. If the vote goes either for remaining in or leaving; unless the vote is conclusive neither those for or against will be happy and will continue the struggle.
WE CERTAINLY LIVE IN INTERESTING TIMES. Europe is the cause of the main conflict within the Tory Party. It has always been the case within the party throughout the Thatcher, Major, and now the Cameron years. The party can no longer rely upon the loyalty of its eurosceptics that undoubtedly opposed (especially under John Major) membership; but nevertheless supported the leadership when it came to all legislation bereft of any EU import.
Both the main parties are in various states of civil war. If it were an eight furlong horse race then after the third furlong the Tory Party are in the lead, but only just. Creeping up behind the Tories is the Corbynista Labour Party; and both are vying for the prize of being ahead of the other in the battle for their respective parties.
The liberal political and pro-EU consensus that has proved the dominant paradigm for the past 50 years in Europe is facing a challenge it has never had to face before. Paradigms change; it is of course the nature of social evolution. But when it comes to the EU, all paradigms have only pointed in one direction – toward a United States of Europe.
IN THE UK, its people have become ever more disillusioned with party politics. Since the rise of Tony Blair and the Conservative Party under David Cameron; Cameron has tried to emulate his mentor. Both the main parties have fought over the centre ground of British politics; but neither of each party's supporters have been endeared by the outcome of such an accommodation comprising of focus groups and the tapestry of free loaders that now coalesce around all party leaders spewing forth their pre-requisite advice on becoming a prime minister.
We now have a civil war in the making for both our main political parties. As in America the establishment parties are no longer credited with anything more than promises undermined or broken once in power – thus, we have Bernie and Donald trying to become their party's candidate for president. This is the patina of modern centre ground democracy; not only in the USA but throughout the Western democratic world. All over Europe the people are experimenting with new parties with a harder edge[1] either on the Left or the Right they are filling the vacuum created by the traditional mainstream parties.
Who knows? The conflict within our two main parties currently under way, may bring true and real differences back between the parties. There is a rebellion underway in 90% of Western democracies – a rebellion of the voters; not of students whose revolutionary romanticism leads to civil conflict; but of ordinary citizens who have had their noses squeezed between the thumb and forefinger of the liberal establishment, and by such means to be escorted to the ballot box and given a vacuous choice of candidates. Vacuous in the real sense that the establishment parties are just vultures fighting over the occupancy of the centre ground of British politics; and gulling the people with the kind of rhetoric that feeds our sentimentality.
[1] I will not use the term extreme. The main parties have no appeal to those who have become disenchanted with phoney parliamentary exchanges that are more theatre and pseudo indignation, than they are in any real sense distinctive and different.
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